With the new Kindle's September release imminent and rumours that its price could be cut to $99 (£64) by Christmas, the iPad selling like hot cakes and other e-readers chewing at the printed page, how much longer can the local bookshop last?
One answer: not very much longer.
In my hometown of Brighton (UK) I have seen the closure of many small independent bookshops as well as national chains such as Borders. We are now left with Waterstones , WH Smiths, a couple of cut-price stores and the bonk busters being sold in the book section of Asda.
Cheap e-readers are only going to accelerate this decline. So far in the UK they have only been a niche product, but with Amazon pushing its latest Kindle hard they are just about to explode into the main stream.
With a growing selection of titles available and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos pouring pressure on publishers to reduce the cost of their digital editions, the remaining barriers to widespread adoption of e-books are fast evaporating. And with them goes the expensive retail space of the local bookshop.
So here’s my prediction:
Apart from a few specialised outlets, independent bookshops will be completely dead within five years. All the big chains will close their high street branches in ten. The majority of libraries will be entirely e-book by 2025 - and with the way our current Government is slashing budgets probably sooner.
Like vinyl and CDs, the printed book will soon become nothing more than a quaint reminder of our past only seen on special editions of the Antiques Roadshow.
Published by Wiley Written by Mathew Fraser and Soumitra Dutta
If the title seems strange wait until you start reading. What you think is a book about how social networking will change corporations begins with the medieval Popes army - The Nights Templar. Weird, but effective as it links the web2.0 revolution with historical and anthropological perspectives. The perpetual conflict between centralising institutions and horizontal networks.
The title of the book is derived from the Facebook feature of being able to throw virtual objects at your friends. It would be unfair to describe this as just another web2.0 business title as it covers how society as a whole and not just corporations is being changed and challenged by online social networks.
The book is split into 3 sections which the authors describe as I.S.P - identity, status and power.
The notion of identity online is more fluid and multifaceted than the physical world where we are constrained by institutional norms and values. In cyber space you have more freedom to be who and what you want to be. Liberating stuff but there is a dark side; paedophilia and cyber bulling are amongst some of the more frightening examples given. Also the idea that your past online becomes an indelible digital tattoo that is with you for life. Those funny moments captured flat on your back at university and posted on Facebook suddenly become a lot more embarrassing when Googled by a future employer.
The section on status moves away from the social individual and into the corporate world where there is a command and control model or as the book describes it a vertical structure. Social technologies are horizontal in nature and have a bias towards performance and efficiency. This allows the smartest ideas from whoever and wherever to rise to the surface. Middle managers in particular view this as threatening as they see their ascribed status and position as gate keepers of information undermined.
Power is fundamentally about who is the boss. Social technologies are pushing power to the margins rather than it being monopolised. The old command and control dynamic is dying, now anyone can contribute as the barriers and cost of entry is almost zero. This is resulting in new commercial realities.
In the music industry the revolution of social networking sites and peer to peer networks has forced the development of a new business model.
In corporations the adoption has been slower but web2.0 tools are now being used for communications functions that don't necessitate organisational change.
In Politics, Obama's victory in 2008 is the first Facebook election and a vindication of the power of grass roots technology. The same social tools he used to sweep to power now offer an opportunity to reconnect Government to the people.
The authors conclude by examining the issue of trust and state that the web2.0 revolution may depend on the capacity to find a proper balance between loosening controls and losing control - between self regulation and legal constraints.
Overall this is a good book that is stuffed with well researched examples and is written from the perspective of the realist rather than the evangelist. It knits together the past, present and future in a highly readable narrative.
